Tropical Storm HOWARD

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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 31 2004

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW HOWARD BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BANDING FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS.  THE 1200 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE 2.5 FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 3.5 FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT.  HOWARD SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS FOR
AT LEAST 72 HOURS...SO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE
SHIPS OR GFDL MODELS.

INITIAL MOTION IS WNW AT 10 KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC IN THAT THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. 
HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A LARGE HIGH SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA.  FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE HOWARD ON A WNW TRACK FOLLOWING THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.  AFTERWARDS THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
UKMET AND GFDL WEAKENING THE RIDGE DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WHICH ALLOWS HOWARD TO FOLLOW A  NORTHERLY TRACK...ON THE OTHER
HAND THE GFS AND NOGAPS BUILD THE RIDGE WESTWARD AND TAKE THE
CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.  THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES BETWEEN
THESE OPTIONS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/1500Z 14.5N 107.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 15.3N 108.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 16.3N 110.6W    60 KT
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 17.1N 112.4W    70 KT
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 17.8N 114.2W    75 KT
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N 118.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     05/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W    50 KT
 
 
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