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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN AUG 29 2004
 
LAST VISIBLE IMAGES BEFORE SUNSET SHOWED A COMPLETELY EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED 45 NM TO THE EAST OF A WEAKENING
BURST OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE IN THE 45-55 KT RANGE...DATA T
NUMBERS FROM ALL THE SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE DOWN TO 35 KT AND THIS
IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THEREAFTER...THE
DISSIPATING CIRCULATION WILL BE STEERED ON AN ACCELERATING WESTWARD
TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. THE SIMPLER BAM
MODELS...NHC91 AND LBAR KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWEST TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST...WHICH IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. 
 
GEORGETTE IS CURRENTLY OVER WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 24C-25C AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER WATER BETWEEN 23-24C THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST WITH DISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS
AND A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 96 HOURS. THIS IS FASTER THAN THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE. 

FORECASTER COBB/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 19.9N 123.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 20.2N 124.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 20.4N 126.2W    25 KT
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 20.7N 128.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 21.0N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 21.0N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 21.0N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 30-Aug-2004 02:33:40 UTC