ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN AUG 29 2004 GEORGETTE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A STRONG CLUSTER OF CONVECTION BUT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME MORE EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 3.0 FROM TAFB AND AFWA...BUT HAVE FALLEN TO 2.5 FROM SAB. GIVEN THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF GEORGETTE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT UNTIL THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS FOR BRINGING IT DOWN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9. THIS IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT ONLY BECAUSE A SLIGHT REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER WAS REQUIRED. REGARDLESS...GEORGETTE HAS BEEN ON TRACK AND SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST BY 24-48 HOURS ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES AND THE LEFTOVER SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS STEERED BY LOWER LEVEL FLOW. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDN WHICH JOGS GEORGETTE ABOUT 1 OR 2 DEGREES FARTHER SOUTH. AFTER 48 HOURS THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A DUE WESTWARD MOTION DURING DISSIPATION...FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE GFS AND PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE PASSED ABOUT 80 NM NORTH OF A BUOY WHICH IS REPORTING A SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 26C. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY PARALLELING THE STRONGEST SST GRADIENT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AROUND 24-25C THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND BOTH WEIGH HEAVILY ON THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE GFS...THIS MODEL IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM WITHIN 72 HOURS WITH A REMNANT LOW BEYOND 4 DAYS. FORECASTER BERG/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 19.3N 120.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 19.6N 121.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 19.9N 123.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 31/0000Z 20.2N 125.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 31/1200Z 20.5N 128.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 20.5N 132.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 02/1200Z 20.5N 137.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/1200Z 20.5N 141.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 29-Aug-2004 14:43:52 UTC