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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 29 2004
 
GEORGETTE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTANT BURSTS OF CONVECTION 
NEAR THE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS THE STORM HAS ENDURED EASTERLY SHEAR. CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 45 KT.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO SINCE THE STORM IS LOCATED ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...GEORGETTE
WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT IT WILL BE STEERED TO THE WEST
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS AND CONY ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND
MOVES GEORGETTE DUE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS. THE UKMET...NHC91 AND THE
BAM MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHICH
SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING EXPECTED.
 
GEORGETTE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 6 TO 12
HOURS WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED IN THE 24-36 HOUR TIMEFRAME.
AFTER 36 HOURS THE SYSTEM CROSSES 24C WATERS AND THE WEAKENING
SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BY 72
HOURS...AND A REMNANT LOW ON DAYS 4 AND 5. 

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 19.2N 120.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 19.5N 121.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 19.9N 123.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 20.1N 125.1W    40 KT
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 20.3N 127.2W    30 KT
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 20.6N 131.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 20.8N 136.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     03/0600Z 21.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Sunday, 29-Aug-2004 09:03:39 UTC