Tropical Storm GEORGETTE

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TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 28 2004
 
ANOTHER BURST OF COLD CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -85C  
HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF GEORGETTE. THIS HAS BEEN
THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS THE STORM HAS ENDURED MODEST
EASTERLY SHEAR. CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA...AND 55 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO SINCE THE STORM IS LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...GEORGETTE WILL
HAVE WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT IT WILL BE STEERED TO THE WEST BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS AND CONY ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND
MOVES GEORGETTE DUE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS. THE UKMET...NHC91 AND THE
BAM MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHICH
SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING EXPECTED.
 
GEORGETTE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM JUST AFTER 12 HOURS
WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED IN THE 24-36 HOUR TIMEFRAME. AFTER 36
HOURS THE SYSTEM CROSSES 24C WATERS AND THE WEAKENING SHOULD BE
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BY 72 HOURS...AND A
REMNANT LOW ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE GFDL AS THE FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH
OF THE GFDL OVER COOLER WATERS. 

FORECASTER COBB/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 19.1N 118.9W    50 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 19.3N 120.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 19.7N 122.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N 123.9W    40 KT
 48HR VT     31/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     01/0000Z 20.5N 130.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     02/0000Z 20.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     03/0000Z 20.6N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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