ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT AUG 28 2004 EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ENHANCED BD CURVE ANIMATION DEPICT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS INTERMITTENT DEEP BURSTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SATELLITE FINAL T-NUMBERS ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB. OVERALL...CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 280 AT 10 KT. DYNAMICAL AND BETA SHALLOW AND MID LAYER MODELS AGREE WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT PERIOD...HOWEVER... THE SHALLOW BETA...GFS AND THE CANADIAN INDICATE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED NEAR 136W BY THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. THE NOGAPS TRACKER IS SIMILAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS...BUT JUST A BIT SLOWER IN RESPONDING TO THE TROUGH INFLUENCE. THE UKMET MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A WEAKER RIDGE AND HAS BEEN WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT WILL DEPICT A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...JUST AS INDICATED BY CONU. THE INTENSITY PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS...CALLING FOR A RELATIVELY STEADY INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. GEORGETTE COULD EVEN DISSIPATE FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE 20 KT SHEAR PERSISTS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 18.7N 115.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 18.8N 117.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 19.0N 119.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 19.3N 121.6W 40 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.6N 123.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 31/0600Z 20.0N 127.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 01/0600Z 20.5N 131.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 02/0600Z 20.5N 135.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-Aug-2004 09:03:36 UTC