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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 28 2004

EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ENHANCED BD CURVE ANIMATION DEPICT
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE EAST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS INTERMITTENT DEEP
BURSTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SATELLITE FINAL T-NUMBERS ARE
35 KT FROM AFWA AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB. OVERALL...CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45 KT.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 280 AT 10 KT. DYNAMICAL AND BETA
SHALLOW AND MID LAYER MODELS AGREE WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST
MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT
PERIOD...HOWEVER... THE SHALLOW BETA...GFS AND THE CANADIAN
INDICATE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED NEAR 136W BY THE 72
HOUR PERIOD. THE NOGAPS TRACKER IS SIMILAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
MODELS...BUT JUST A BIT SLOWER IN RESPONDING TO THE TROUGH
INFLUENCE. THE UKMET MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A WEAKER
RIDGE AND HAS BEEN WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT
WILL DEPICT A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...JUST AS INDICATED BY CONU.
 
THE INTENSITY PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS...CALLING FOR A RELATIVELY STEADY
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. GEORGETTE COULD EVEN
DISSIPATE FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE 20 KT
SHEAR PERSISTS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 18.7N 115.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 18.8N 117.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N 119.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 19.3N 121.6W    40 KT
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 19.6N 123.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     31/0600Z 20.0N 127.5W    25 KT
 96HR VT     01/0600Z 20.5N 131.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     02/0600Z 20.5N 135.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-Aug-2004 09:03:36 UTC