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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 27 2004
 
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS
ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED DESPITE A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE 
CENTER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW INDICATE 20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF GEORGETTE. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. ACTUAL
DATA T NUMBERS WERE 0.5 TO 1.0 T NUMBERS LOWER...MORE INDICATIVE OF
A WEAKER SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT
BASED ON THIS AND THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  GEORGETTE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR 135W
IN THE 96-120 HR TIMEFRAME WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON THE RIDGE THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THUS THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE GEORGETTE
TO TURN WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ALONG THESE LINES AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GUNA AND CONU ENSEMBLES. IN ADDITION THE FORECAST KEEPS THE DUE
WESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST ON THE BASIS THAT A WEAKENING
GEORGETTE WILL BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GEORGETTE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY
STATE THROUGH 24-36 HOURS THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES COOLER
WATER.  THIS IS ALONG THE LINES OF SHIPS AND WEAKER THAN THE GFDL
WHICH INITIALIZES WITH A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM. IT IS INTERESTING
THAT PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECASTS FROM SHIPS UNDERESTIMATED THE
SHEAR THAT IS OCCURRING TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GEORGETTE
COULD DISSIPATE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER COBB/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 18.8N 115.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 19.2N 117.1W    45 KT
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 19.5N 119.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     29/1200Z 19.9N 121.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N 123.8W    40 KT
 72HR VT     31/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     01/0000Z 20.0N 132.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-Aug-2004 02:33:47 UTC