Tropical Storm GEORGETTE

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TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 27 2004

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
GEORGETTE IS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF WEAKENING DEEP
CONVECTION.  SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN CONTINUE TO INDICATE 15-20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45
KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/15.  OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO
CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  GEORGETTE REMAINS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 96 HR.  AFTER THAT...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR 135W MAY WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT. 
THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE GEORGETTE TO TURN WESTWARD DURING
THE FIRST 96 HR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.
AFTER 96 HR...THE NOGAPS AND THE BAM MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR A WESTWARD MOTION ON THE BASIS THAT A WEAKENING GEORGETTE
WILL BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
THE WINDOW FOR GEORGETTE TO STRENGTHEN IS STARTING TO CLOSE...AS THE
STORM IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN THIS MORNING AND IT IS RUNNING OUT OF
WARM WATER.  BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL FORECAST 12-24 HR MORE
STRENGTHENING...BUT BOTH NOW KEEP GEORGETTE BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG
THESE LINES IN CASE ONE LAST BIG CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURS TONIGHT. 
THE STORM SHOULD CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 24 HR AND PASS
OVER WATER COLDER THAN 24C AFTER 96 HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GEORGETTE COULD DISSIPATE FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 18.6N 113.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.3N 115.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 19.8N 118.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 20.1N 120.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 20.3N 122.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     30/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     31/1800Z 20.5N 130.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     01/1800Z 20.5N 134.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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