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Tropical Storm GEORGETTE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 26 2004

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A BURST OF -85C CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE CENTER
AND A RAGGED OUTER BAND IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND
TAFB.  BASED ON THE AFWA ESTIMATE AND THE IMPROVED SATELLITE
SIGNATURE SINCE 18Z...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
GEORGETTE.  THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/12.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE THAT GEORGETTE IS
SOUTH OF A NARROW MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 28N-30N. 
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD
WESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GEORGETTE TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE
WESTWARD.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLING FOR A WESTWARD TURN
AFTER 36-48 HR WHILE THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS...LBAR...AND NHC91 MOVE
THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WITH A WESTWARD TURN AFTER 48 HR...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE NORMAL BEHAVIOR OF EPAC CYCLONES WEAKENING OVER
COLDER WATER.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.  IT IS ALSO
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 48 HR AND SLOWER
THEREAFTER.
 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SO THE INTENSITY OF GEORGETTE WILL BE CONTROLLED MAINLY BY
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER 30C
SSTS...WHICH DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK TO 26C BY 72 HR AND
BELOW 25C AFTER 96 HR.  BASED ON THIS...GEORGETTE IS FORECAST TO
PEAK AT ABOUT 65 KT IN 48-72 HR AND THEN WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY
120 HR.  THE STRENGTHENING BEST AGREES WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...WHILE
THE WEAKENING BEST AGREES WITH THE GFDL.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 15.5N 107.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 16.5N 109.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 17.6N 112.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 18.3N 114.8W    60 KT
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 18.6N 117.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 19.0N 121.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 125.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     31/1800Z 19.0N 130.0W    25 KT
 
 
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