Tropical Depression TEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2004
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH A 25-KT
SHIP REPORT AT 12Z...INDICATE THE LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ABOUT 305 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT
FROM TAFB AND IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE
FIX. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 290/10. THE CENTER HAS
BEEN REFORMING NEAR THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BURSTS THE PAST 12
HOURS...SO ASCERTAINING BOTH CENTER PLACEMENT AND FORWARD MOTION
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD MASS HAS BEEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AWAY FROM MEXICO...THE
PAST 24 HOURS. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO UNTIL THE
CYCLONE REACHES MUCH COLDER WATER. AFTER THAT...SIGNIFICANTLY AND A
DECOUPLING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE MID-AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BE DRIVEN MORE
WESTWARD BY THE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS.

TD-10E HAS A LARGER THAN AVERAGE CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY PRECLUDE
ANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING.  HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION
ALREADY HAS GOOD BANDING FEATURES AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY AND A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE IT MOVES OVER MUCH
COLDER SSTS BY ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT MUCH
LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER
COLD SSTS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 14.4N 106.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 15.1N 108.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 16.1N 110.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 17.0N 112.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 17.5N 115.1W    60 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 18.2N 120.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 18.5N 125.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     31/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W    25 KT
 
 
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