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Tropical Depression NINE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2004
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED...WITH ONLY WEAK
CONVECTION AND CIRRUS DEBRIS CURRENTLY REMAINING NORTH OF THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 1.5 FROM
TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AS A 25 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER SST LESS THAN 25 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND
UNDER MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  AS A RESULT...
DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS.  THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OF THE
DEPRESSION...AND ITS REMNANT LOW...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS SOLUTION.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 19.5N 127.3W    25 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 19.7N 128.8W    25 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 19.8N 130.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 19.9N 133.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 20.0N 135.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 140.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 20.0N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N 147.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Aug-2004 14:53:42 UTC