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Tropical Depression NINE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004

THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUED TO BE OFFSET FROM
THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO ITS NORTH AS INDICATED BY CONVENTIONAL IR
IMAGES.  AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 ISSUED BY SAB SUPPORTS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING AT 30 KNOTS.  

THE TRACK FORECAST HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE REASONABLY SLOW MOVING
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 315/03...JUST SOUTH OF A COL IN THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE DEPRESSION ON A
NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS TO ITS NORTH...LIMITING ITS NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE GENERALLY MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE TRACK THAN THE NHC
MODEL SUITE.  AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND STEER THE SYSTEM ON A WESTERLY
TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS. 

THE SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER
THE FIRST 24 HOURS UNDER WEAK SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  THE DEPRESSION SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND 36 HOURS.  THIS INCREASED SHEAR
COUPLED WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C SHOULD WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM.

CLARK
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 18.7N 124.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 19.1N 124.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 19.4N 125.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 19.5N 127.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 19.5N 128.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 19.6N 132.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 19.6N 135.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/1200Z 19.6N 139.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Aug-2004 15:03:22 UTC