ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA AND CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS IN NEAR MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE....ONLY SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS IS PROBABLY CAUSED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN CIRCULATION OF STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 18.8N 124.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 19.0N 124.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 19.5N 125.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 19.5N 127.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 131.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/0600Z 19.5N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Aug-2004 08:33:21 UTC