ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2004 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN NONEXISTENT FOR OVER 12 HOURS. AN EARLIER 26/0200Z QUIKSCAT PASS OVER FRANK REVEALED A FEW RESIDUAL 30 KT WIND VECTORS OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...AND AFWA AT 35 KT. BASED ON THE CONTINUED LACK OF CONVECTION...AND THE FACT THAT FRANKS CURRENT STATE IS A FULLY EXPOSED WEAK SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6 KT. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ESTABLISHED RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AS A REMNANT LOW OVER COOLER WATERS OVER THE FEW NEXT DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN 48...OR POSSIBLY FASTER. BASED ON THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 22.4N 119.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 22.5N 120.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 27/0600Z 22.5N 121.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 27/1800Z 22.5N 123.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 26-Aug-2004 08:33:29 UTC