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Hurricane FRANK


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2004
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN NONEXISTENT FOR OVER 12 HOURS. AN EARLIER
26/0200Z QUIKSCAT PASS OVER FRANK REVEALED A FEW RESIDUAL 30 KT WIND
VECTORS OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...AND AFWA AT 35 KT. BASED
ON THE CONTINUED LACK OF CONVECTION...AND THE FACT THAT FRANKS
CURRENT STATE IS A FULLY EXPOSED WEAK SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6 KT. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ESTABLISHED RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AS A REMNANT LOW OVER COOLER WATERS
OVER THE FEW NEXT DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN 48...OR POSSIBLY FASTER.
BASED ON THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 22.4N 119.3W    25 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 22.5N 120.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 22.5N 121.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 22.5N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 26-Aug-2004 08:33:29 UTC