ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2004 FRANK IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND IS ESSENTIALLY A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 35 KT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES...AND THESE VALUES ARE BASED ON CONSTRAINTS FOR WEAKENING SYSTEMS...AND ARE ASSUMED TO BE LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. FRANK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR FRANK TO REMAIN A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 72 HOURS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE SMALL SCALE OF THE CIRCULATION THIS IS RATHER GENEROUS. INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION AND/OR THE REMNANT LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECASTER COBB/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 22.4N 118.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 22.6N 119.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 27/0000Z 22.6N 121.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 27/1200Z 22.5N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/0000Z 22.5N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 26-Aug-2004 02:43:24 UTC