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Hurricane FRANK


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2004
 
FRANK IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND IS ESSENTIALLY A SWIRL OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 35
KT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES...AND THESE VALUES ARE BASED
ON CONSTRAINTS FOR WEAKENING SYSTEMS...AND ARE ASSUMED TO BE LITTLE
ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS.  THUS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. FRANK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR FRANK TO REMAIN A REMNANT
LOW THROUGH 72 HOURS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE SMALL SCALE OF THE
CIRCULATION THIS IS RATHER GENEROUS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  AS A RESULT...A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION AND/OR THE REMNANT LOW IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS GENERALLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 22.4N 118.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 22.6N 119.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 22.6N 121.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 22.5N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 22.5N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 26-Aug-2004 02:43:24 UTC