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Hurricane FRANK


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2004
 
FRANK HAS LOST NEARLY ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION...AND WHAT
CONVECTION REMAINS IS CONFINED TO AN AREA JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 KT TO 65 KT...BUT T
NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 3.0 WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 45 KT.  AS A
COMPROMISE...PERHAPS A GENEROUS ONE GIVEN THE LOSS OF
CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50 KT.  FRANK
IS LOCATED OVER SST NEAR 24 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND CONTINUED STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION WITHIN ABOUT 48
HOURS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

TRACKING THE MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS INDICATES A MOTION JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 7
KNOTS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF FRANK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT...WHICH IS ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  AS A RESULT...A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANT
LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH MOST
DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 22.0N 117.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 22.2N 118.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 22.3N 120.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 22.4N 121.7W    25 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 22.5N 123.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 22.5N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 22.5N 129.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/1200Z 22.5N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Aug-2004 14:43:27 UTC