Hurricane FRANK

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HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004
 
IR IMAGES SHOW THAT FRANK HAS BEEN DISPLAYING AN INTERMITTENT EYE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT
THE HURRICANE HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AT 75 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE
IS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...ACCORDING TO SST
ANALYSES IT HAS ALREADY CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM...WHICH WILL LEAD
TO WEAKENING SHORTLY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS
MODELS WHICH WEAKEN THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
THERE HAVE BEEN CHANGES IN THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TRACK
EARLY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE HEADING AS OF
LATE. FRANK IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT
10 KNOTS. IN THE SHORT TERM...A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR YUMA
ARIZONA AND ITS ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST JUST WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE ERODED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORCING FRANK TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AROUND THE WEAKENING RIDGE. THIS TROUGH SHOULD LIFT
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A NEW RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FORCING THE CYCLONE TO
MOVE WESTWARD.  ALSO...SINCE FRANK IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT IN AROUND 48
HOURS...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS WHICH WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE RATHER FAST...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ONLY THE UKMET
APPEARS TO BE CORRECTLY INITIALIZED STRENGTHWISE. THE BAMM SUITE
FROM THE GFS BRINGS THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD...WITH THE LBAR
SHOWING THE CYCLONE IN EASTERN COLORADO AT 120 HOURS. THIS IS NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF THIS PACKAGE. THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THE LARGER SIZE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE-E IN THE ANALYSIS...THE DEPRESSION TO THE WEST SEEMS TO HAVE A
SLIGHTLY LARGER LOW CLOUD SHIELD/CIRCULATION THAN FRANK ACCORDING
TO SATELLITE IMAGERY.
 
FORECASTER ROTH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 20.9N 114.8W    75 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 22.0N 115.7W    70 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 23.1N 117.2W    65 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 23.4N 119.4W    55 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 23.4N 121.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 23.1N 124.7W    35 KT
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 22.6N 127.7W    30 KT
120HR VT     29/1200Z 22.2N 130.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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