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Hurricane FRANK


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004
 
IR IMAGES SHOW THAT FRANK HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE. THIS FEATURE
WAS BETTER DEFINED ON EARLIER TRIMM DATA...BUT IT HAS BECOME VERY
POORLY DEFINED ON THE LATEST IR IMAGES. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...MOST LIKELY...THIS WILL BE THE PEAK INTENSITY OF FRANK
SINCE THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS OR LESS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS
MODELS WHICH BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND FRANK CONTINUES
TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. IN THE
SHORT TERM...A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORCING FRANK TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEAKENING RIDGE. THEREAFTER...A NEW RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FORCING THE CYCLONE TO
MOVE WESTWARD.  IN ADDITION...SINCE FRANK IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...
IT WILL PROBABLY BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS WHICH UNANIMOUSLY WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE RATHER FAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL OVER-EMPHASIZING
THE SIZE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E IN THE ANALYSIS.       
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 20.0N 114.4W    75 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 21.0N 115.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 22.0N 117.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 22.5N 118.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 23.0N 120.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 23.0N 123.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 23.0N 126.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     29/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Aug-2004 08:33:20 UTC