ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2004 BASED ON UNANIMOUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM THE THREE AGENCIES...KGWC...SAB...AND TAFB...THE RAPID STRENGTHENING NOTED EARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY... ABATED. THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION... SINCE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY SHOWS A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING THAN THE EARLIER ONE BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT TREND...AND A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK IN THE FIRST 1-2 DAYS...WHICH PUTS FRANK OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE OF LIMITED USE FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN UNREALISTIC INITIAL STATE THAT OVEREMPHASIZES THE SIZE AND STRENGTH OF T.D. NINE-E...LOCATED A LITTLE LESS THAN 600 N MI TO THE WEST OF FRANK. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES...THE MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE FORECASTING IT CORRECTLY AT THIS TIME. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE FIRST 1-2 DAYS OF THE PERIOD...AND SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 19.3N 113.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 21.4N 116.3W 85 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 22.2N 117.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 22.5N 119.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 22.8N 122.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 23.0N 125.6W 40 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 23.0N 129.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Aug-2004 02:33:19 UTC