Hurricane FRANK

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HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2004

BASED ON UNANIMOUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM THE
THREE AGENCIES...KGWC...SAB...AND TAFB...THE RAPID STRENGTHENING
NOTED EARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...
ABATED.  THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...
SINCE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY WARM ENOUGH
FOR ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY
SHOWS A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING THAN THE EARLIER ONE BECAUSE OF
THE CURRENT TREND...AND A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK IN THE
FIRST 1-2 DAYS...WHICH PUTS FRANK OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS.  

DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE OF LIMITED USE FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF
WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN UNREALISTIC INITIAL STATE THAT OVEREMPHASIZES
THE SIZE AND STRENGTH OF T.D. NINE-E...LOCATED A LITTLE LESS THAN
600 N MI TO THE WEST OF FRANK.  ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BINARY
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES...THE MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO
BE FORECASTING IT CORRECTLY AT THIS TIME.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS TRACK FORECAST IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE FIRST 1-2 DAYS
OF THE PERIOD...AND SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS LATER IN
THE PERIOD.  THIS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 19.3N 113.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W    75 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 21.4N 116.3W    85 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 22.2N 117.8W    75 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 22.5N 119.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 22.8N 122.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 23.0N 125.6W    40 KT
120HR VT     29/0000Z 23.0N 129.0W    30 KT
 
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