Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane FRANK


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2004
 
FRANK HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS AN EYE HAS BECOME
APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED A DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM TAFB AT 18Z...3-HR
AVERAGE ODT VALUES OF T3.8...OR 61 KT...AND THE EYE FEATURE THAT
HAS PERSISTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE THE 18Z OBSERVATIONS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12.  FRANK HAS REMAINED ON TRACK...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS CONTINUED TO KEY IN MORE ON WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE-E LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF FRANK. THAT
CIRCULATION BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM...WHICH FORCES
FRANK NORTHWESTWARD ALMOST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN
THAT FRANK IS STRONGER AND AT LEAST THE SAME SIZE AS TD-9E...MY
FEELING IS THAT FRANK WILL STEER TD-9E...AND NOT THE OTHER WAY
AROUND. AS SUCH...FRANK IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO
TD-9E...OWING TO BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE DEPRESSION...AND ALSO
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
AFTER THAT...FRANK WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BE FORCED WESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWARD BY 72HOURS.
 
FRANK HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE ANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO SLOW DOWN THAT PROCESS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS
AND THE HURRICANE HAS A SMALL...TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND
DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN. BY 36 HOURS...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER SUB-26C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS.  HOWEVER...AS WE SAW WITH HURRICANE DARBY EARLIER THIS
YEAR...26C WATER IS NOT A BARRIER TO A HURRICANE REACHING MAJOR
INTENSITY... AND FRANK COULD PEAK NEAR 100 KT BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36
HOUR TIME PERIODS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...FRANK IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER SUB-24C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 18.4N 113.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 19.2N 114.2W    75 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 20.3N 116.0W    90 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 21.3N 117.8W    85 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 22.0N 119.6W    75 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 22.5N 123.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 23.0N 126.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 23.5N 129.5W    30 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 23-Aug-2004 20:43:18 UTC