ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON AUG 23 2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING BASED ON CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. A 23/0927Z AMSU OVERPASS INDICATED A TIGHT INNER-CORE OF CONVECTION WITH A LONG CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPPED MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER...THAT WOULD YIELD A DATA T-NUMBER OF AT LEAST T2.5...OR 35 KT. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM TAFB. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FRANK. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. THE DEEP BAM AND LBAR MODELS RECURVE FRANK ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 60H AND INTO THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST BY 96H...WHILE THE GFDL...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS HAVE THE CYCLONE LIMPING ALONG SLOWLY WESTWARD AS ALMOST A NON-ENTITY. THIS IS BECAUSE THOSE MODELS BARELY SHOW A CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK DUE TO THEIR KEYING MORE ON THE WEAKER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 700 NMI DUE WEST OF FRANK. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES FRANK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN PERSISTENCE...CLIPER...THE MEDIUM BAM AND THE 23/00Z ECMWF MODELS ...AND SOME POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO THE WEST. AFTER THAT...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER WITH SSTS LESS THAN 24C...AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND BE FORCED MORE WESTWARD BY THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF FRANK. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 26C AND HIGHER SSTS FOR AT LEAST 36-48 HOURS. SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED AND IS IMPROVING...THEN STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR...WITH STEADY WEAKENING AFTER THAT AS FRANK MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 17.6N 111.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 18.3N 112.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.1N 114.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 20.2N 115.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 21.1N 117.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 22.2N 121.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 22.5N 123.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 28/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W 25 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Aug-2004 14:23:18 UTC