Tropical Storm ESTELLE

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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 2004
 
ESTELLE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY...WITH IMPROVED
BANDING FEATURES IN BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH SEMICIRCLES AND GOOD
OUTFLOW. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RESPONDED TO THIS TREND AND ARE AT
T3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB WITH T2.5...35 KT...FROM AFWA.
BASED ON THIS AND CURRENT TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 45 KT. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR
AND WARM SSTS...AND ESTELLE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL
MODELS SUGGEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH MARGINAL SSTS
SHOULD PUT A CAP ON THE INTENSIFICATION AFTER 24 HOURS. FORECAST
INTENSITY AT 60 KT IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE FROM 72 HOURS TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION OF ESTELLE HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
285/11. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AROUND A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEYOND 48 HOURS...RESULTING IN A MORE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BUT A LITTLE FASTER. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN THE LONG RANGE...
THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOWS A SHARPER TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT
TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 14.2N 138.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 14.7N 140.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 15.5N 142.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 16.3N 144.4W    65 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 16.8N 146.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 17.0N 151.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 17.0N 154.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N 157.5W    60 KT
 
 
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