Tropical Storm ESTELLE

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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2004
 
LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT ESTELLE IS SHOWING GOOD OVERALL
STRUCTURE...WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN BANDS NEAR THE CENTER AND
GOOD OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM ALL
AGENCIES AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SLOW INTENSIFICATION DESPITE THE CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL
SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP TO 50 KT IN 48
HOURS WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS...THEN REMAIN STEADY
THEREAFTER AS MODEST SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER ESTELLE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF ESTELLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A
SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REBUILD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN THE LONG RANGE...THE GLOBAL
CONSENSUS SHOWS A SHARPER TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL TRACK WILL ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
 
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 14.1N 137.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 14.8N 139.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 15.5N 141.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 16.3N 142.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.0N 144.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 148.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 17.0N 151.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 155.0W    50 KT
 
 
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