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Tropical Depression SIX-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 03 2004

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TD SIX-E. 
THIS IS SOMEWHAT REFLECTED IN THE T NUMBERS OF 1.5/2.0/1.5 FROM
TAFB/SAB/KGWC.  THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR
SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME FRAME BEFORE VERTICAL
SHEAR BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY CALLS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO JUST MAKE IT TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN 24
HOURS AND BEGIN WEAKENING AT THE 48 HOUR FORECAST TIME.  
 
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION REMAINS THE SAME. A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK BUT A LITTLE SLOWER AND JUST TO THE LEFT.  IT IS ALSO
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 13.1N 133.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 13.8N 134.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 14.7N 136.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 15.4N 138.2W    35 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 16.0N 140.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 17.0N 146.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 17.5N 151.5W    25 KT
120HR VT     08/0600Z 18.0N 156.0W    20 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 03-Aug-2004 08:32:38 UTC