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Tropical Depression SIX-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 02 2004
 
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 30 KT WITH SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND T NUMBERS OF 2.0/2.0/1.5 FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC.  THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE MODELS CALL FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.  THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE STRONG AFTER 72 HOURS AND THIS IS
REFLECTED BY A WEAKENING TREND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THAT
TIME.
 
A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWEST TO
WESTWARD AND ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS ALONG THE SAME TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS A
LITTLE FASTER AFTER 48 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE MODELS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 12.8N 132.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 13.4N 133.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 14.6N 135.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 15.9N 137.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N 140.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 17.0N 144.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N 150.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     08/0000Z 18.0N 156.0W    25 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 03-Aug-2004 02:22:34 UTC