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Tropical Depression SIX-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL 
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2 PM PDT MON AUG 02 2004

CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS CLASSIFICATIONS SO THE CYCLONE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KTS.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE
WEST AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND THIS CONVECTIVE
PATTERN HAS REMAINED THE SAME OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.

THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
PROBABLE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM SSTS. THE GFDL IS SLIGHTLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE AROUND 36-48 HRS THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND INTO COOLER WATERS.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE STORM TRACK
IS GENERALLY WESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...AND IT GENERALLY AGREES WITH CONU AND GUNA MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER SISKO/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 12.8N 131.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 13.5N 132.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 14.3N 134.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 15.2N 136.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 15.9N 138.2W    50 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N 142.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 17.0N 146.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 17.0N 150.0W    35 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 02-Aug-2004 20:52:37 UTC