Tropical Depression SIX-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 02 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE
TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE AN IMPROVED
BANDING STRUCTURE BEFORE UPGRADING IT.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO COOLER WATERS
AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 12.4N 129.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 12.8N 130.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 13.5N 132.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 14.4N 134.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.3N 135.8W    55 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N 140.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 17.0N 144.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     07/0600Z 17.0N 148.0W    35 KT
 
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