ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU JUL 29 2004 AFTER A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION...DARBY'S CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THE EYE IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS. COOL WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD AFFECT THE HURRICANE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WEAKENING AT A FASTER PACE SHOULD BEGIN SOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. DARBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IS GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...SOME MODELS CARRY DARBY WESTWARD AND OTHERS NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST WHEN DARBY BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE IN 72 HOURS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 17.6N 128.0W 100 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 18.2N 129.8W 85 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 132.2W 70 KT 36HR VT 31/0000Z 19.5N 134.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 31/1200Z 19.5N 137.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 20.0N 142.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 02/1200Z 20.5N 146.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/1200Z 20.5N 152.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 29-Jul-2004 14:32:29 UTC