Hurricane DARBY

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HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUL 28 2004
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. DARBY HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND BANDING FEATURES. BECAUSE T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO 90 KNOTS. SINCE DARBY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26
DEGREE ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE...THERE IS ONLY LESS THAN A DAY FOR DARBY TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN...IF AT ALL. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN.

THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS AROUND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. A WEAKNESS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW DARBY
TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK.  HOWEVER...AS DARBY WEAKENS...IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST IN 4 AND 5 DAYS.  DURING THE
FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS WHEN DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG
SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THEREAFTER...AS WEAKENING BEGINS AND THE CYCLONE BECOMES
SHALLOW...THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO BAMM OR BAMS MODELS. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 16.2N 124.5W    90 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 16.9N 126.2W    90 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 17.5N 128.5W    80 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W    70 KT
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 132.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     31/1800Z 19.5N 137.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     01/1800Z 20.0N 142.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     02/1800Z 20.0N 147.0W    35 KT
 
 
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