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Hurricane DARBY


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUL 28 2004
 
SSMI MICROWAVE DATA AT 28/0336Z AND 28/0507Z CLEARLY INDICATE THAT
DARBY HAS DEVELOPED A 20-25 NMI DIAMETER EYE...WHICH MAKES CENTER
PLACEMENT FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE LARGE VARIANCE IN THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH RANGE FROM 77 KT FROM TAFB TO 65 KT
FROM SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. IN ADDITION...AUTOMATED ODT VALUES
FROM UW-CIMSS ARE AROUND 69 KT WITH A COUPLE OF RAW VALUES OF 77
KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE ODT VALUES...A ROUND CDO FEATURE...AND
THE WELL-DEFINED EYE NOTED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGES...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT AND DARBY IS UPGRADED TO THE SECOND
HURRICANE OF THE 2004 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON DARBY MAINTAINING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. BY 72 HOURS...A MORE WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED
AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND THE DOMINANT STEERING
FLOW IS THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. SINCE THE
LATEST SATELLITE FIXES HAVE BEEN BASICALLY COMING IN ON TRACK...THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND
IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.

NOW THAT DARBY HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED EYE...SOME ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE HURRICANE
MOVES OVER SUB-26C SSTS IN 36-48 HOURS SINCE DARBY REMAINS IN A LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 27.5 SSTS. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING FOR THE PAST 30 HOURS...SUCH PHASES RARELY
EXCEED 36 HOURS. AS SUCH... THE CURRENT INTENSITY TREND IS BEING
LEVELED OFF SOMEWHAT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 14.8N 122.3W    70 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 15.4N 123.9W    75 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 16.0N 125.9W    80 KT
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 16.5N 127.8W    80 KT
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 17.0N 130.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     31/0600Z 17.6N 134.3W    60 KT
 96HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N 139.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N 143.0W    40 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 28-Jul-2004 08:42:26 UTC