ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 2004 THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BANDING TYPE EYE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO CALL THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON THE FORMATION OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE... WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF DARBY BECOMING A HURRICANE AND THEN STRENGTHENING FURTHER ARE HIGH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. DARBY IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS TO ITS WEST. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WOULD ALLOW DARBY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH MAINTAINS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. IF DARBY WEAKENS MORE THAN INDICATED DUE TO COOL WATERS...THE CYCLONE COULD MOVE MORE TO WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 13.8N 119.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 14.5N 121.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 15.0N 124.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 15.5N 126.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 16.0N 128.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 17.0N 132.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 31/1800Z 18.0N 136.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 01/1800Z 19.0N 141.0W 55 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 27-Jul-2004 20:42:26 UTC