Tropical Depression FIVE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 26 2004

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS A REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS ALSO BECOMING MORE
EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  THUS ADVISORIES
ARE BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS AND BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW. 
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.

BECAUSE THE CENTER IS NOT YET WELL DEFINED...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SCATTER IN LOCATION ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/11...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MEAN FOR THE BASIN.  THE TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THAT A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
DOMINATE THE STEERING.  THE NHC TRACK IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN
BY THE NCEP GFS MODEL.  
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 12.5N 114.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 12.9N 116.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 13.5N 118.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 14.0N 120.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 14.5N 122.6W    50 KT
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 15.0N 126.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     30/1800Z 15.5N 130.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     31/1800Z 16.0N 133.5W    60 KT
 
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