Hurricane CELIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUL 25 2004
 
ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON
NUMEROUS UNCONTAMINATED 30-KT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT ON A 25/0228Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT...OR
T2.0...FROM TAFB.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/11. THIS MOTION AND THE
INITIAL POSITION ARE BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK...PAST MOTION...AND THE LATEST QUIKSCAT POSITION. THIS PLACES
THE CENTER OF CELIA A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
FIX POSITIONS...WHICH ARE UP INTO THE CONVECTION. CELIA IS EXPECTED
TO TURN WESTWARD IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
DECOUPLES FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRONG PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
GUNA AND GUNS MODELS AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...IF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION SURVIVES
BEYOND WHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING...IT WOULD MOVE
OVER WARMER WATER THAT COULD LEAD TO THE REGENERATION OF CONVECTION
AND THE CYCLONE. THE SHALLOW BAM AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE THE REMNANT
LOW TO NEAR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN ABOUT 120 HOURS.
 
UNLIKE THE PAST TWO NIGHTS AT THIS TIME...THE CONVECTION IS NOW ON
THE WANE. INTERMITTENT BRIEF BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT ANY PERSISTENT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SUB-24C SST WATER FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE GRADUAL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY 48
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER...IF CELIA MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER LIKE SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
...THEN COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT OCCUR.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 18.0N 132.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 18.2N 134.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 18.2N 137.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 18.2N 139.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 18.1N 142.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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