ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT JUL 24 2004 ANOTHER CONVECTIVE BURST HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF CELIA. OTHERWISE...CELIA REMAINS A SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SUGGESTING STABLE AIR WRAPPED INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. CELIA HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE FASTER OVER THE PAST 6 HR...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 285/11. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HR...THEN TURN WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GUNS. THE CURRENT BURST MAY BE THE LAST GASP FOR CELIA. THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING OFF THE NORTHWARD BULGE OF WARMER WATER NOTED LAST NIGHT...AND IN 12-24 HR IT SHOULD BE OVER 24C OR COLDER WATER. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION AS SHOWN IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 17.7N 131.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 18.1N 132.9W 25 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 18.3N 135.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 26/1200Z 18.3N 137.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 27/0000Z 18.3N 139.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Jul-2004 02:42:25 UTC