ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI JUL 23 2004 THE CONVECTIVE FLARE UP SEEN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIED AWAY...LEAVING A LARGE MASS OF CIRRUS DEBRIS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CELIA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT...AS IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY CELIA MIGHT BE WEAKENING WITH THE DEMISE OF THE CONVECTIVE BURST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/7. CELIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD FOR THE PAST TWO TO THREE DAYS EVEN THOUGH MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CALLED FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS CALLING FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND GFDL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM 24 HR AGO. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR CELIA TO CONTINUE WESTWARD UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES IN 48-72 HR. THIS TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE...AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM NCEP SHOW THAT CELIA IS PASSING OVER A NORTHWARD BULGE IN THE 27C ISOTHERM. THIS MAY HAVE AIDED THE CONVECTIVE BURST. THIS BULGE EXTENDS ALONG 16N TO ABOUT 130W...AND CELIA SHOULD BE MOVING OFF OF IT BY ABOUT 24 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE FOR 12 HR OR SO FOLLOWED A RESUMPTION OF GRADUAL WEAKENING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND SHIPS BOTH INDICATE THAT CELIA WILL SURVIVE OUT TO 120 HR...SO IT COULD LAST A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 16.2N 127.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 16.3N 128.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 16.4N 130.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 16.5N 132.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 26/0000Z 16.6N 134.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 24-Jul-2004 02:42:24 UTC