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Hurricane CELIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUL 23 2004
 
THE CONVECTIVE FLARE UP SEEN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIED
AWAY...LEAVING A LARGE MASS OF CIRRUS DEBRIS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF CELIA.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
35 KT...AS IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY CELIA MIGHT BE WEAKENING
WITH THE DEMISE OF THE CONVECTIVE BURST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/7.  CELIA HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD FOR THE PAST TWO TO THREE DAYS EVEN THOUGH MUCH OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CALLED FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION.  MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS CALLING FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND GFDL HAVE SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD FROM 24 HR AGO.  THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR CELIA
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES IN 48-72 HR.  THIS TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE...AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM NCEP SHOW THAT CELIA IS PASSING OVER A
NORTHWARD BULGE IN THE 27C ISOTHERM.  THIS MAY HAVE AIDED THE
CONVECTIVE BURST.  THIS BULGE EXTENDS ALONG 16N TO ABOUT 130W...AND
CELIA SHOULD BE MOVING OFF OF IT BY ABOUT 24 HR.  THUS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE FOR 12 HR OR SO FOLLOWED
A RESUMPTION OF GRADUAL WEAKENING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
GFDL AND SHIPS BOTH INDICATE THAT CELIA WILL SURVIVE OUT TO 120
HR...SO IT COULD LAST A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 16.2N 127.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.3N 128.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.4N 130.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 132.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 16.6N 134.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 24-Jul-2004 02:42:24 UTC