Hurricane CELIA

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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUL 22 2004
 
CELIA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION...WITH THE MOST
CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  AS NOTED EARLIER...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY HOW FAST THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING. 
HOWEVER...EARLIER WIND IMAGERY FROM SSM/I AND TRMM INDICATES THAT
WHATEVER TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN ARE CONFINED TO THE
REMAINING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
REDUCED ON THE SOUTH SIDE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MICROWAVE DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8.  CELIA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD
UNTIL DISSIPATION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST TRACK GUDIANCE...
INCLUDING THE BAMS...CALLS FOR A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. 
THIS MAY BE ACADEMIC...AS SUCH A TRACK WOULD LEAD TO AN EVEN FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DEMISE OVER COOLER WATER.  THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS.

CELIA MAY BE FEELING THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST TO THE
NORTH...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SEEMS TO
BE CAUSING SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER THE CYCLONE CENTER. 
THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND UNTIL
THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES IN 48-72 HR.  SEVERAL MODELS KEEP CELIA
ALIVE UNTIL 120 HR...WHICH DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 16.3N 124.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 16.4N 125.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.5N 127.3W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 129.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.5N 131.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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