Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane CELIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUL 22 2004
 
CELIA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION...WITH THE MOST
CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  AS NOTED EARLIER...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY HOW FAST THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING. 
HOWEVER...EARLIER WIND IMAGERY FROM SSM/I AND TRMM INDICATES THAT
WHATEVER TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN ARE CONFINED TO THE
REMAINING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
REDUCED ON THE SOUTH SIDE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MICROWAVE DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8.  CELIA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD
UNTIL DISSIPATION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST TRACK GUDIANCE...
INCLUDING THE BAMS...CALLS FOR A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. 
THIS MAY BE ACADEMIC...AS SUCH A TRACK WOULD LEAD TO AN EVEN FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DEMISE OVER COOLER WATER.  THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS.

CELIA MAY BE FEELING THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST TO THE
NORTH...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SEEMS TO
BE CAUSING SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER THE CYCLONE CENTER. 
THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND UNTIL
THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES IN 48-72 HR.  SEVERAL MODELS KEEP CELIA
ALIVE UNTIL 120 HR...WHICH DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 16.3N 124.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 16.4N 125.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.5N 127.3W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 129.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.5N 131.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 23-Jul-2004 02:42:24 UTC