Hurricane CELIA
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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUL 22 2004
VIRTUALLY ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH CELIA HAS EVAPORATED. THE
WINDS ARE CLEARLY DECREASING...ALTHOUGH IT IS HARD TO ESTIMATE JUST
HOW QUICKLY. THE LATEST DVORAK T/CI NUMBERS...HELD UP BY
CONSTRAINTS...ARE 3.0/4.0. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS OVER 26C WATER IN
AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WILL BE BASED ON THE T NUMBER. WATER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COOL UNDER THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO A CONTINUED DECAY IS FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/7...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A SHADE
FASTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
WITH A SHALLOW LAYER FLOW AND PICK UP SOME FORWARD SPEED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 16.3N 123.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 16.4N 124.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 16.5N 126.2W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 24/0600Z 16.5N 128.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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