Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane CELIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUL 22 2004

THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB AND 65 KT FROM AFWA.  THE 77 KT ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON
THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...AND WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THERE IS A
GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EMBEDDED DISTANCE.  MOREOVER...THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER AMORPHOUS WITH NO WELL-DEFINED BANDING
FEATURES...AND NO APPARENT EYE.  HIGH-RESOLUTION DATA FROM A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0206 UTC SHOWED A 65 KT SURFACE WIND SPEED. 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY...TO 70 KT.  CELIA
SHOULD BE NEAR PEAK INTENSITY THIS MORNING AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
LIKELY TO BEGIN WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATERS.  IN 2-3 DAYS CELIA WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED THE 25
DEG C SST ISOTHERM...AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE MOTION CONTINUES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST AT AROUND 6 KT...WHICH
IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.  THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL
ADVISORY PACKAGES.  A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST TO THE
NORTH OF CELIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  AS IN EARLIER RUNS...THE GFS MODEL HAS
UNDER-INITIALIZED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO THE OBJECTIVE VORTEX
TRACKER IS UNABLE TO FOLLOW A CENTER.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN UNREALISTICALLY LARGE STORM
IN THE INITIAL STATE.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE
TO THE LATEST GFDL...GFDN...AND U.K. MET OFFICE GUIDANCE...AND
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 16.5N 122.0W    70 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 16.7N 123.1W    70 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N 124.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 17.3N 126.2W    55 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 17.6N 127.9W    45 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 131.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N 135.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Jul-2004 08:32:24 UTC