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Tropical Storm CELIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED JUL 21 2004
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55...55...AND 50 KT FROM TAFB...
SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS GOOD BANDING ABOUT A
WELL-DEFINED IR WARM SPOT THAT IS ALSO APPARENT IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. STILL...THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0230Z DIDN'T SHOW ANYTHING
ABOVE ABOUT 40 KT. THIS MOST LIKELY MEANS THAT EITHER CELIA IS
WEAKER THAN INDICATED BY DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...PERHAPS BECAUSE
OF LOW LEVEL STABILITY INHIBITING VERTICAL TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM TO
THE SURFACE...OR THE WIND MAXIMUM IS TOO SMALL TO BE RESOLVED BY
THE SCATTEROMETER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY BUT IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL ADVISORIES...
IN CALLING FOR A LITTLE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE COOLER WATERS ARE
REACHED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 286/6.  THERE HAS ALSO BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.   CELIA REMAINS SOUTH
OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 125W
LONGITUDE AND THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE RATHER SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CELIA MOVES PAST THIS WEAKNESS
WHILE IT WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE WITH A SHALLOWER LAYER MEAN
FLOW.  

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 16.2N 120.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 16.4N 121.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 16.8N 122.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 17.2N 124.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 18.0N 129.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 18.0N 133.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Jul-2004 14:42:23 UTC