ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE JUL 20 2004 CELIA HAS FLUCTUATED IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE EVENING. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THAN EARLIER...AND A SHORT-LIVED EYE-WANNABE APPEARED IN THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER... OVERALL THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. THE STORM HAS JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6 HR... POSSIBLY DUE TO A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/7. CELIA IS SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO PERSIST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPREAD BETWEEN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD MOTIONS. THE MOST SOUTHERLY OF THE MODELS...THE GFS AND THE UKMET...HAVE A RELATIVELY WEAK REPRESENTATION OF THE STORM AND ARE QUICKER TO DISSIPATE IT. THE GFDL AND THE NOGAPS HAVE A STRONGER REPRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE AND A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL...CALLING FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR ABOUT 72 HR FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AS CELIA WEAKENS OVER COLD WATER. THE NEW FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF CELIA IS IMPEDING THE OUTFLOW IN THAT QUADRANT. OTHERWISE...IT HAS GOOD OUTFLOW. THE JOG TO THE RIGHT HAS BROUGHT CELIA CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...AND THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER. THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING FOR 12-24 HR BEFORE CELIA REACHES THE 26C ISOTHERM. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN. NOTE THAT ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BE INTO EVEN COLDER WATER AND LIKELY HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE SYSTEM. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 16.1N 119.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 16.6N 120.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 17.0N 121.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 17.4N 123.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 17.8N 125.2W 40 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 128.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 19.0N 132.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 26/0000Z 19.0N 135.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Jul-2004 02:42:23 UTC