ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE JUL 20 2004 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF THIS SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS HEALTHY. WATER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM UNDER THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...SO THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR CELIA TO STRENGTHEN. SO FAR...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE WEST OF CELIA HAS BEEN INGESTED INTO THE STORM'S CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE IN BRINGING CELIA TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. BY 36 HOURS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING AROUND THAT TIME. THE FORWARD SPEED CONTINUES TO SLOW...TO 285/6. MODEL GUIDANCE... THE GFS IN PARTICULAR...HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE FAST WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUGGEST STRONG MID-LATITUDE RIDGING AHEAD OF CELIA. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 15.4N 117.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 15.7N 118.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 16.2N 120.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 16.7N 122.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 17.0N 124.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 17.5N 127.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 25/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Jul-2004 14:42:23 UTC