Tropical Storm CELIA

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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 20 2004
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 55 AND 45
KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS
NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE OUTFLOW
PATTERN OF THIS SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS HEALTHY.  WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM UNDER THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...SO THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR
CELIA TO STRENGTHEN.  SO FAR...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE STABLE
AIR MASS TO THE WEST OF CELIA HAS BEEN INGESTED INTO THE STORM'S
CIRCULATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE IN BRINGING CELIA TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH.  BY 36 HOURS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE 26C
SST ISOTHERM...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING
BEGINNING AROUND THAT TIME.

THE FORWARD SPEED CONTINUES TO SLOW...TO 285/6.  MODEL GUIDANCE...
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR...HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE FAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO FAR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUGGEST STRONG
MID-LATITUDE RIDGING AHEAD OF CELIA.  GIVEN THESE TRENDS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.   
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 15.4N 117.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 15.7N 118.7W    55 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 16.2N 120.4W    60 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 16.7N 122.2W    55 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.0N 124.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 17.5N 127.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     25/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W    30 KT
 
 
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