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Tropical Storm BLAS


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUL 14 2004
 
BLAS IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN OVER 24C WATER AND THERE IS CURRENTLY
VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION LEFT.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KT FROM THE THREE AGENCIES.  SHIP
ELYS4 AT 06Z REPORTED 35 KT ABOUT 100 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND THE
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 02Z SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KT.  A
PAIR OF SHIP REPORTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE
CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FROM THE CENTER
IN THE LARGE-SCALE BAND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
ALTHOUGH STEADY WEAKENING IS CALLED FOR AS BLAS MOVES OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...THE LARGE CIRCULATION WILL BE SLOW TO
DISSIPATE.
 
THE FORWARD SPEED OF BLAS APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED SOMEWHAT...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/16.  THE STORM IS BEING
STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
ADDITIONAL SLOWING OF THE STEERING WINDS AS BLAS NEARS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.  A MORE WESTWARD STEERING BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADEWIND FLOW IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
EVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING...THE OUTER BANDS OF BLAS
COULD STILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 21.9N 115.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 22.9N 117.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 23.9N 119.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 24.4N 121.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 25.0N 123.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 25.0N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 25.0N 129.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 14-Jul-2004 08:32:20 UTC