Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm BLAS


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUL 13 2004
 
AFTER LOOKING HEALTHY THIS MORNING...BLAS NOW APPEARS TO BE FEELING
THE EFFECTS OF COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE CONVECTIVE
OVERCAST SEEN THIS MORNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A LOOSE BANDING
PATTERN...AND THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT
FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/17...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MIGHT
BE A LITTLE FASTER.  THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BLAS SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 12-24 HR ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES...THEN DECELERATE AND TURN MORE WESTWARD AS
THE CYCLONE WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO OF THE
GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS.  THE UKMET CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A MORE
NORTHWARD AND SLOWER MOTION.  SINCE THIS MODEL OVER-INITIALIZES THE
DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF BLAS...IT IS BEING DISCOUNTED FOR THIS
FORECAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST DUE MAINLY TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION.

THE FASTER THAN EXPECTED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS BROUGHT BLAS TO
26C AND COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS
SCHEDULE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR A FASTER WEAKENING
THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  BLAS IS NOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION IN 48 HR AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR...WITH THE
CIRCULATION DISSIPATING COMPLETELY BY 120 HR.
 
AN AUTOMATED STATION NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS HAS BEEN REPORTING 30-35 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS AT AN ELEVATION OF 225 M.  WHILE THE MAIN CORE OF
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH BLAS IS FORECAST TO STAY OFFSHORE...SQUALLS
WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEN BAJA CALIFORNIA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 20.1N 112.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 21.4N 114.8W    50 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 22.5N 116.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 23.3N 118.9W    35 KT
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 23.7N 120.8W    30 KT
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 24.0N 124.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 24.0N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 13-Jul-2004 20:32:21 UTC